Development and internal validation of clinical prediction models for outcomes of complicated intra-abdominal infection.

BACKGROUND: Complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics of patients with cIAI in a multicentre study and to develop clinical prediction models (CPMs) to help identify patients at risk of mortality or relapse. METHODS: A multicentre observational study was conducted from August 2016 to February 2017 in the UK. Adult patients diagnosed with cIAI were included. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to develop CPMs for mortality and cIAI relapse. The c-statistic was used to test model discrimination. Model calibration was tested using calibration slopes and calibration in the large (CITL). The CPMs were then presented as point scoring systems and validated further. RESULTS: Overall, 417 patients from 31 surgical centres were included in the analysis. At 90 days after diagnosis, 17.3 per cent had a cIAI relapse and the mortality rate was 11.3 per cent. Predictors in the mortality model were age, cIAI aetiology, presence of a perforated viscus and source control procedure. Predictors of cIAI relapse included the presence of collections, outcome of initial management, and duration of antibiotic treatment. The c-statistic adjusted for model optimism was 0.79 (95 per cent c.i. 0.75 to 0.87) and 0.74 (0.73 to 0.85) for mortality and cIAI relapse CPMs. Adjusted calibration slopes were 0.88 (95 per cent c.i. 0.76 to 0.90) for the mortality model and 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94) for the relapse model; CITL was -0.19 (95 per cent c.i. -0.39 to -0.12) and - 0.01 (- 0.17 to -0.03) respectively. CONCLUSION: Relapse of infection and death after complicated intra-abdominal infections are common. Clinical prediction models were developed to identify patients at increased risk of relapse or death after treatment, these now require external validation.

Prevalence of infectious diseases and drug abuse among Bangladeshi workers.

Individuals seeking jobs abroad need health fitness certificates before entering into those countries. Medical screening of 43,213 Bangladeshi job seekers (M/F: 42,290/923) was carried out in our reference center during the period August, 1994 to May, 1996. Albeit male predominance, they represented middle and lower middle socio-economic class of the population from all over the country. All were young adults (age: 27.05+/-3.56 years; mean+/-SD) applying for job visas to different Asian countries. Physical examination and laboratory investigations including markers for several infectious diseases and drugs of abuse were carried out as required by countries recruiting the workers. Serological tests revealed that 1,884 (4.4%) of individuals were positive for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), 737 (1.7%) for Treponema pallidum hemagglutination (TPHA) and only 83 (0.2%) for antibody to human immunodeficiency virus (anti-HIV). However, we could not confirm any case of infection with HIV. Chest X-ray suggestive of pulmonary tuberculosis was found in 162 (0.4%) and on blood film, malarial parasites could be observed only in 4 cases. Their urine analysis revealed the presence of opiates or cannabinoids in 471 (1.1%) individuals. HBsAg-positive cases (p = 0.003) and abuse of opiates (p = 0.024) or cannabinoids (p = 0.002) were significantly higher among males. TPHA reactivity and chest X-ray suggestive of tuberculosis were found to be higher among opiates (p = 0.002 and 0.027) and cannabinoids (p = 0.000 for both) abused as well as with increasing age (p = 0.000). These results may represent a cross-sectional view of the prevalence of different infectious diseases and abuse of drugs among the young adult population of Bangladesh.